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Cesar Vallejo vs Sport Huancayo — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
3/8/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Cesar Vallejo50%
×Draw23%
Sport Huancayo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesar Vallejo
1.88
Sport Huancayo
1.33

Cesar Vallejo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Cesar Vallejo
1.75
Sport Huancayo
0.67

allows per match

Cesar Vallejo
2.00
Sport Huancayo
2.00

finishing

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par
Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesar Vallejo ↓

Sport Huancayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Cesar Vallejo or draw
73%
Cesar Vallejo or Sport Huancayo
77%
Draw or Sport Huancayo
50%

Winning margin

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
28%
Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
85%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
56%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
29%
Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
74%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
38%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
65%
Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesar Vallejo at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.75 + Sport Huancayo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Sport Huancayo attack 0.67 + Cesar Vallejo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cesar Vallejo scores more
50%
level
23%
Sport Huancayo scores more
27%

Cesar Vallejo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cesar Vallejo vs Sport Huancayo

Cesar Vallejo beat Sport Huancayo 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.