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Sport Huancayo vs Carlos Stein — Primera División 2018

Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
9/8/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 10Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Sport Huancayo55%
×Draw23%
Carlos Stein21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Huancayo
1.77
Carlos Stein
1.00

Sport Huancayo creates 77% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 32 away

creates per match

Sport Huancayo
1.64
Carlos Stein
0.91

allows per match

Sport Huancayo
1.08
Carlos Stein
1.91

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw
79%
Sport Huancayo or Carlos Stein
77%
Draw or Carlos Stein
45%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
31%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
83%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
53%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
26%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
63%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
26%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
72%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.08 · 145 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.64 + Carlos Stein defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.77

Carlos Stein attack 0.91 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more
55%
level
23%
Carlos Stein scores more
21%

Sport Huancayo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Sport Huancayo 1–0 Carlos Stein

Sport Huancayo beat Carlos Stein 1-0 in Primera División on September 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao in Callao.