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Carlos Stein vs Sport Huancayo — Primera División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
9/4/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 10Estadio Víctor Montoya Segura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Carlos Stein37%
×Draw26%
Sport Huancayo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.35
Sport Huancayo
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 147 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.21
Sport Huancayo
1.05

allows per match

Carlos Stein
1.68
Sport Huancayo
1.50

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Sport Huancayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
63%
Carlos Stein or Sport Huancayo
74%
Draw or Sport Huancayo
63%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
17%
Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
74%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
39%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
15%
Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
74%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
39%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
50%
Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.50 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.21 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sport Huancayo attack 1.05 + Carlos Stein defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
37%
level
26%
Sport Huancayo scores more
37%

Carlos Stein at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Carlos Stein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carlos Stein vs Sport Huancayo

Sport Huancayo beat Carlos Stein 1-0 in Primera División on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Víctor Montoya Segura in Jaén.