Sport Huancayo 3–1 Carlos A. Mannucci

Sport Huancayo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Carlos A. Mannucci

R. Gómez 69'

L. Benítes 31'

R. Huaccha 18'

R. Colombo 90+1' (OG)

8/19/2023

Primera División · Clausura - 10Estadio Huancayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Sport Huancayo49%

×Draw25%

Carlos A. Mannucci26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport HuancayoExpected goals in this matchCarlos A. Mannucci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.11

Sport Huancayo

1.62

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.11

Sport Huancayo creates 46% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 88 away

1.65

creates per match

1.17

1.05

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Sport Huancayo

1.65

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.17

allows per match

Sport Huancayo

1.05

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

Carlos A. Mannucci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw

74%

Sport Huancayo or Carlos A. Mannucci

75%

Draw or Carlos A. Mannucci

51%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

26%

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

80%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

48%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

22%

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals

67%

Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals

30%

Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

65%

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.05 · 133 matches

Carlos A. Mannucci away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.59 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.65 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.62

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.17 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more

49%

level

25%

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more

26%

Sport Huancayo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

R. Gómez

Sport Huancayo · M

8.5

Match Events

18'

R. Huaccha↳ R. Gómez

31'

L. Benítes

46'

L. Escalante← A. Cossio

46'

R. García← M. Succar

65'

F. González← W. Aguirre

65'

C. Correa← E. Gonzáles

69'

Hugo Ángeles

69'

R. Gómez↳ C. Ross

77'

C. Escobar← R. Huaccha

77'

L. Villar← C. Ross

77'

B. Urrutia← J. Núñez

81'

Federico González

84'

Alexis Rojas← R. Gómez

85'

C. Jiménez← L. Benítes

85'

Á. Pérez← H. Ángeles

90'

Marcos Lliuya

90+1'

R. ColomboOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportCarlos

Overview

72%Possession28%

17Total Shots6

6Corners3

10Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots6

6On Target2

8Off Target4

3Blocked0

3Inside Box4

14Outside Box2

Passing

72%Possession28%

648Total Passes253

567Accurate Passes181

88%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2