Carlos A. Mannucci 1–2 Sport Huancayo

Carlos A. Mannucci

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sport Huancayo

A. Succar 36'

L. Cano 90+6'

M. Quina 28'

9/29/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 13Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Carlos A. Mannucci39%

×Draw28%

Sport Huancayo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carlos A. MannucciExpected goals in this matchSport Huancayo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.13

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.26

Sport Huancayo

1.13

Carlos A. Mannucci creates 12% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 142 away

1.04

creates per match

1.04

1.22

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.04

Sport Huancayo

1.04

allows per match

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.22

Sport Huancayo

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos A. Mannucci ↓

Sport Huancayo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Carlos A. Mannucci or draw

67%

Carlos A. Mannucci or Sport Huancayo

72%

Draw or Sport Huancayo

61%

Winning margin

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+

17%

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals

72%

Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals

36%

Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals

13%

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

68%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

31%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)

54%

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos A. Mannucci at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.22 · 89 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.48 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.04 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.26

Sport Huancayo attack 1.04 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more

39%

level

28%

Sport Huancayo scores more

33%

Carlos A. Mannucci at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Carlos A. Mannucci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Cano

Sport Huancayo · F

7.7

Match Events

-5'

14'

28'

36'

61'

N. Albarracín← J. Vidales

67'

Otávio Gut← E. Villar

71'

J. Cortés← M. Llontop

71'

71'

73'

78'

78'

82'

E. Urtecho← A. Succar

90+5'

Marcos Lliuya

90+6'

L. Cano↳ J. Núñez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlosSport

Overview

56%Possession44%

18Total Shots8

6Corners2

19Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots8

5On Target4

7Off Target2

6Blocked2

8Inside Box5

10Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

358Total Passes296

269Accurate Passes217

75%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls17

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Primera División: Carlos A. Mannucci 1–2 Sport Huancayo

Sport Huancayo beat Carlos A. Mannucci 2-1 in Primera División on September 29, 2024.

Goals: M. Quina (28'), A. Succar (36'), L. Cano (90+6').

Carlos A. Mannucci controlled possession (56%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.

Carlos A. Mannucci vs Sport Huancayo — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Carlos A. Mannucci 1–2 Sport Huancayo