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Sport Chavelines Juniors vs Santos — Segunda División 2018

Sport Chavelines Juniors
Sport Chavelines Juniors
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santos
Santos
8/9/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 2Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sport Chavelines Juniors44%
×Draw26%
Santos30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.50
Santos
1.19

Sport Chavelines Juniors creates 26% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 83 away

creates per match

Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.45
Santos
1.02

allows per match

Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.35
Santos
1.54

finishing

Sport Chavelines Juniors+0.00on par
Santos+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Chavelines Juniors ↓

Santos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sport Chavelines Juniors or draw
70%
Sport Chavelines Juniors or Santos
74%
Draw or Santos
56%

Winning margin

Sport Chavelines Juniors wins by 2+
22%
Santos wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sport Chavelines Juniors 1+ goals
78%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 2+ goals
44%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 3+ goals
19%
Santos 1+ goals
70%
Santos 2+ goals
33%
Santos 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sport Chavelines Juniors (draw refunded)
60%
Santos (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Chavelines Juniors at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

Santos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.54 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Chavelines Juniors attack 1.45 + Santos defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.50

Santos attack 1.02 + Sport Chavelines Juniors defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sport Chavelines Juniors scores more
44%
level
26%
Santos scores more
30%

Sport Chavelines Juniors at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sport Chavelines Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Chavelines Juniors vs Santos

Sport Chavelines Juniors beat Santos 3-0 in Segunda División on August 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Universidad San Marcos in Lima.