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Santos vs Sport Chavelines Juniors — Segunda División 2018

Santos
Santos
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Chavelines Juniors
Sport Chavelines Juniors
6/5/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 10Estadio 12 de Noviembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Santos50%
×Draw24%
Sport Chavelines Juniors26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos
1.71
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.15

Santos creates 49% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 27 away

creates per match

Santos
1.56
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.30

allows per match

Santos
1.00
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.85

finishing

Santos+0.00on par
Sport Chavelines Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Sport Chavelines Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Santos or draw
74%
Santos or Sport Chavelines Juniors
76%
Draw or Sport Chavelines Juniors
50%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+
27%
Sport Chavelines Juniors wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals
82%
Santos 2+ goals
51%
Santos 3+ goals
24%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 1+ goals
68%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 2+ goals
32%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)
66%
Sport Chavelines Juniors (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.00 · 80 matches

Sport Chavelines Juniors away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.56 + Sport Chavelines Juniors defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.71

Sport Chavelines Juniors attack 1.30 + Santos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Santos scores more
50%
level
24%
Sport Chavelines Juniors scores more
26%

Santos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santos vs Sport Chavelines Juniors

Santos beat Sport Chavelines Juniors 3-0 in Segunda División on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio 12 de Noviembre in San Juan de Miraflores.