Sport Chavelines Juniors 4–2 Deportivo Llacuabamba

Sport Chavelines Juniors

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Deportivo Llacuabamba

5/29/2021

Segunda División · Apertura - 3Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sport Chavelines Juniors46%

×Draw25%

Deportivo Llacuabamba29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport Chavelines JuniorsExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Llacuabamba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.19

Sport Chavelines Juniors

1.55

Deportivo Llacuabamba

1.19

Sport Chavelines Juniors creates 30% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 61 away

1.45

creates per match

1.03

1.35

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Sport Chavelines Juniors

1.45

Deportivo Llacuabamba

1.03

allows per match

Sport Chavelines Juniors

1.35

Deportivo Llacuabamba

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Chavelines Juniors+0.00on par

Deportivo Llacuabamba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Chavelines Juniors ↓

Deportivo Llacuabamba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sport Chavelines Juniors or draw

71%

Sport Chavelines Juniors or Deportivo Llacuabamba

75%

Draw or Deportivo Llacuabamba

54%

Winning margin

Sport Chavelines Juniors wins by 2+

23%

Deportivo Llacuabamba wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sport Chavelines Juniors 1+ goals

79%

Sport Chavelines Juniors 2+ goals

46%

Sport Chavelines Juniors 3+ goals

20%

Deportivo Llacuabamba 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Llacuabamba 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo Llacuabamba 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sport Chavelines Juniors (draw refunded)

61%

Deportivo Llacuabamba (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Chavelines Juniors at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

Deportivo Llacuabamba away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Chavelines Juniors attack 1.45 + Deportivo Llacuabamba defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.55

Deportivo Llacuabamba attack 1.03 + Sport Chavelines Juniors defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sport Chavelines Juniors scores more

46%

level

25%

Deportivo Llacuabamba scores more

29%

Sport Chavelines Juniors at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sport Chavelines Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff