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Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Sport Chavelines Juniors — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Llacuabamba
Deportivo Llacuabamba
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Sport Chavelines Juniors
Sport Chavelines Juniors
5/22/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 8Estadio Municipal Otuzco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deportivo Llacuabamba56%
×Draw22%
Sport Chavelines Juniors22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.93
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.12

Deportivo Llacuabamba creates 72% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 27 away

creates per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba
2.00
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.30

allows per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba
0.94
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.85

finishing

Deportivo Llacuabamba+0.00on par
Sport Chavelines Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Llacuabamba ↓

Sport Chavelines Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Deportivo Llacuabamba or draw
78%
Deportivo Llacuabamba or Sport Chavelines Juniors
78%
Draw or Sport Chavelines Juniors
44%

Winning margin

Deportivo Llacuabamba wins by 2+
33%
Sport Chavelines Juniors wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Llacuabamba 1+ goals
85%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 2+ goals
57%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 3+ goals
30%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 1+ goals
67%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 2+ goals
31%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Llacuabamba (draw refunded)
72%
Sport Chavelines Juniors (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Llacuabamba at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 62 matches

Sport Chavelines Juniors away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Llacuabamba attack 2.00 + Sport Chavelines Juniors defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.93

Sport Chavelines Juniors attack 1.30 + Deportivo Llacuabamba defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo Llacuabamba scores more
56%
level
22%
Sport Chavelines Juniors scores more
22%

Deportivo Llacuabamba at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Llacuabamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Sport Chavelines Juniors

Deportivo Llacuabamba beat Sport Chavelines Juniors 5-1 in Segunda División on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Otuzco in Otuzco.