Sport Chavelines Juniors 2–0 Comerciantes Unidos

Sport Chavelines Juniors

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Comerciantes Unidos

4/10/2022

Segunda División · Apertura - 2Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sport Chavelines Juniors45%

×Draw25%

Comerciantes Unidos31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport Chavelines JuniorsExpected goals in this matchComerciantes Unidos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.26

Sport Chavelines Juniors

1.57

Comerciantes Unidos

1.26

Sport Chavelines Juniors creates 25% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 53 away

1.45

creates per match

1.17

1.35

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Sport Chavelines Juniors

1.45

Comerciantes Unidos

1.17

allows per match

Sport Chavelines Juniors

1.35

Comerciantes Unidos

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Chavelines Juniors+0.00on par

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Chavelines Juniors ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sport Chavelines Juniors or draw

69%

Sport Chavelines Juniors or Comerciantes Unidos

75%

Draw or Comerciantes Unidos

55%

Winning margin

Sport Chavelines Juniors wins by 2+

22%

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sport Chavelines Juniors 1+ goals

79%

Sport Chavelines Juniors 2+ goals

46%

Sport Chavelines Juniors 3+ goals

21%

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

72%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

36%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sport Chavelines Juniors (draw refunded)

59%

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Chavelines Juniors at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Chavelines Juniors attack 1.45 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.57

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.17 + Sport Chavelines Juniors defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sport Chavelines Juniors scores more

45%

level

25%

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

31%

Sport Chavelines Juniors at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sport Chavelines Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff