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Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Chavelines Juniors — Segunda División 2018

Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Sport Chavelines Juniors
Sport Chavelines Juniors
7/29/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 11Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos53%
×Draw22%
Sport Chavelines Juniors25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comerciantes Unidos
1.92
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.25

Comerciantes Unidos creates 54% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 27 away

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.98
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.30

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.21
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.85

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par
Sport Chavelines Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Sport Chavelines Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw
75%
Comerciantes Unidos or Sport Chavelines Juniors
78%
Draw or Sport Chavelines Juniors
47%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
30%
Sport Chavelines Juniors wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
85%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
57%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
30%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 1+ goals
71%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 2+ goals
36%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
68%
Sport Chavelines Juniors (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.21 · 52 matches

Sport Chavelines Juniors away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.98 + Sport Chavelines Juniors defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.92

Sport Chavelines Juniors attack 1.30 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more
53%
level
22%
Sport Chavelines Juniors scores more
25%

Comerciantes Unidos at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Chavelines Juniors

Sport Chavelines Juniors beat Comerciantes Unidos 5-1 in Segunda División on July 29, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.