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Sport Chavelines Juniors vs Alianza Universidad — Segunda División 2018

Sport Chavelines Juniors
Sport Chavelines Juniors
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Alianza Universidad
Alianza Universidad
7/3/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 1Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sport Chavelines Juniors36%
×Draw25%
Alianza Universidad40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.39
Alianza Universidad
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 43 away

creates per match

Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.45
Alianza Universidad
1.60

allows per match

Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.35
Alianza Universidad
1.33

finishing

Sport Chavelines Juniors+0.00on par
Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Chavelines Juniors ↓

Alianza Universidad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sport Chavelines Juniors or draw
60%
Sport Chavelines Juniors or Alianza Universidad
75%
Draw or Alianza Universidad
64%

Winning margin

Sport Chavelines Juniors wins by 2+
16%
Alianza Universidad wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sport Chavelines Juniors 1+ goals
75%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 2+ goals
40%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 3+ goals
16%
Alianza Universidad 1+ goals
77%
Alianza Universidad 2+ goals
43%
Alianza Universidad 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sport Chavelines Juniors (draw refunded)
47%
Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Chavelines Juniors at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

Alianza Universidad away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Chavelines Juniors attack 1.45 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Alianza Universidad attack 1.60 + Sport Chavelines Juniors defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sport Chavelines Juniors scores more
36%
level
25%
Alianza Universidad scores more
40%

Alianza Universidad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Sport Chavelines Juniors 0–1 Alianza Universidad

Alianza Universidad beat Sport Chavelines Juniors 1-0 in Segunda División on July 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Pacasmayo.