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Alianza Universidad vs Sport Chavelines Juniors — Segunda División 2018

Alianza Universidad
Alianza Universidad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Chavelines Juniors
Sport Chavelines Juniors
6/9/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 1Estadio Heraclio Tapia León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Alianza Universidad57%
×Draw22%
Sport Chavelines Juniors22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Universidad
1.97
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.13

Alianza Universidad creates 74% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 27 away

creates per match

Alianza Universidad
2.09
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.30

allows per match

Alianza Universidad
0.95
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.85

finishing

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par
Sport Chavelines Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Universidad ↓

Sport Chavelines Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Alianza Universidad or draw
78%
Alianza Universidad or Sport Chavelines Juniors
78%
Draw or Sport Chavelines Juniors
43%

Winning margin

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+
33%
Sport Chavelines Juniors wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals
86%
Alianza Universidad 2+ goals
58%
Alianza Universidad 3+ goals
31%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 1+ goals
68%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 2+ goals
31%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)
73%
Sport Chavelines Juniors (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Universidad at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

Sport Chavelines Juniors away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Universidad attack 2.09 + Sport Chavelines Juniors defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.97

Sport Chavelines Juniors attack 1.30 + Alianza Universidad defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Alianza Universidad scores more
57%
level
22%
Sport Chavelines Juniors scores more
22%

Alianza Universidad at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza Universidad vs Sport Chavelines Juniors

Alianza Universidad and Sport Chavelines Juniors drew 1-1 in Segunda División on June 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Heraclio Tapia León in Huánuco.