Sport Boys 1–2 Oriente Petrolero: Result & Stats

Sport Boys

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Oriente Petrolero

12/20/2019

Primera División · Clausura - 23Estadio Samuel Vaca Jimenez (Warnes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sport Boys49%

×Draw23%

Oriente Petrolero28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport BoysExpected goals in this matchOriente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.29

Sport Boys

1.80

Oriente Petrolero

1.29

Sport Boys creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 127 away

1.54

creates per match

1.17

1.42

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Sport Boys

1.54

Oriente Petrolero

1.17

allows per match

Sport Boys

1.42

Oriente Petrolero

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Boys+0.00on par

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

Oriente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw

72%

Sport Boys or Oriente Petrolero

77%

Draw or Oriente Petrolero

51%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+

27%

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals

83%

Sport Boys 2+ goals

54%

Sport Boys 3+ goals

27%

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

72%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

37%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)

64%

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Oriente Petrolero away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.06 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.54 + Oriente Petrolero defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.80

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.17 + Sport Boys defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sport Boys scores more

49%

level

23%

Oriente Petrolero scores more

28%

Sport Boys at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff