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Oriente Petrolero vs Sport Boys — Primera División 2019

Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Boys
Sport Boys
4/26/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 18Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas (Santa Cruz de la Sierra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Oriente Petrolero61%
×Draw21%
Sport Boys18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriente Petrolero
1.99
Sport Boys
0.96

Oriente Petrolero creates 107% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 25 away

creates per match

Oriente Petrolero
1.73
Sport Boys
0.88

allows per match

Oriente Petrolero
1.04
Sport Boys
2.24

finishing

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par
Sport Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriente Petrolero ↓

Sport Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Oriente Petrolero or draw
82%
Oriente Petrolero or Sport Boys
79%
Draw or Sport Boys
39%

Winning margin

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+
37%
Sport Boys wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals
86%
Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals
59%
Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals
32%
Sport Boys 1+ goals
62%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
25%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)
78%
Sport Boys (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriente Petrolero at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.04 · 131 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.73 + Sport Boys defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.99

Sport Boys attack 0.88 + Oriente Petrolero defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Oriente Petrolero scores more
61%
level
21%
Sport Boys scores more
18%

Oriente Petrolero at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Oriente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oriente Petrolero 2 – 1 Sport Boys

Oriente Petrolero beat Sport Boys 2-1 in Primera División on April 26, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas (Santa Cruz de la Sierra).