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Sport Boys vs Guabirá — Primera División 2019

Sport Boys
Sport Boys
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guabirá
Guabirá
8/18/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 8Estadio Samuel Vaca Jimenez (Warnes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sport Boys54%
×Draw22%
Guabirá23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Boys
1.91
Guabirá
1.17

Sport Boys creates 63% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 129 away

creates per match

Sport Boys
1.54
Guabirá
0.92

allows per match

Sport Boys
1.42
Guabirá
2.27

finishing

Sport Boys+0.00on par
Guabirá+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

Guabirá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw
77%
Sport Boys or Guabirá
78%
Draw or Guabirá
46%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+
31%
Guabirá wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals
85%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
57%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
30%
Guabirá 1+ goals
69%
Guabirá 2+ goals
33%
Guabirá 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)
70%
Guabirá (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Guabirá away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.54 + Guabirá defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.91

Guabirá attack 0.92 + Sport Boys defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sport Boys scores more
54%
level
22%
Guabirá scores more
23%

Sport Boys at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Sport Boys 2–0 Guabirá

Sport Boys beat Guabirá 2-0 in Primera División on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Samuel Vaca Jimenez (Warnes).