Guabirá 1–0 Sport Boys: Result & Stats

Guabirá

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sport Boys

4/28/2019

Primera División · Apertura - 20Estadio Gilberto Parada (Montero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Guabirá60%

×Draw21%

Sport Boys19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuabiráExpected goals in this matchSport Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.02

Guabirá

2.02

Sport Boys

1.02

Guabirá creates 98% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 25 away

1.80

creates per match

0.88

1.16

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Guabirá

1.80

Sport Boys

0.88

allows per match

Guabirá

1.16

Sport Boys

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guabirá+0.00on par

Sport Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guabirá ↓

Sport Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Guabirá or draw

81%

Guabirá or Sport Boys

79%

Draw or Sport Boys

40%

Winning margin

Guabirá wins by 2+

37%

Sport Boys wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Guabirá 1+ goals

87%

Guabirá 2+ goals

60%

Guabirá 3+ goals

33%

Sport Boys 1+ goals

64%

Sport Boys 2+ goals

27%

Sport Boys 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Guabirá (draw refunded)

77%

Sport Boys (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guabirá at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.16 · 128 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guabirá attack 1.80 + Sport Boys defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.02

Sport Boys attack 0.88 + Guabirá defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Guabirá scores more

60%

level

21%

Sport Boys scores more

19%

Guabirá at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Guabirá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff