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Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso — Primera División 2026

Sport Boys
Sport Boys
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso
2/11/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 3Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Sport Boys40%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Garcilaso33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Boys
1.31
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.17

Sport Boys creates 12% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 61 away

creates per match

Sport Boys
1.30
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.11

allows per match

Sport Boys
1.23
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.31

finishing

Sport Boys+0.00on par
Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

Deportivo Garcilaso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw
67%
Sport Boys or Deportivo Garcilaso
73%
Draw or Deportivo Garcilaso
60%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals
73%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
38%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)
55%
Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 145 matches

Deportivo Garcilaso away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.30 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.11 + Sport Boys defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sport Boys scores more
40%
level
27%
Deportivo Garcilaso scores more
33%

Sport Boys at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Sport Boys beat Deportivo Garcilaso 2-0 in Primera División on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao in Callao.