Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sport Boys — Primera División 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 62+ matches
Deportivo Garcilaso53%
Sport Boys23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Deportivo Garcilaso creates 67% more chances
Season form · 62 home / 145 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportivo Garcilaso ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportivo Garcilaso at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches
Sport Boys away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.77 · 145 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.52 + Sport Boys defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.65
Sport Boys attack 0.86 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Deportivo Garcilaso at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Deportivo Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Alianza Lima
Cusco
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Sporting Cristal
Cienciano
FBC MelgarDeportivo Garcilaso
ADT
Alianza Atletico
Comerciantes Unidos
Sport HuancayoSport Boys
Atletico Grau
Juan Pablo II College
UTC Cajamarca
Ayacucho FC
Alianza Universidad
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo BinacionalIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Deportivo Garcilaso host Sport Boys on Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 18:15. The match is part of the Primera División 2026/2027 season.
Primera División: Deportivo Garcilaso 3–2 Sport Boys
Deportivo Garcilaso beat Sport Boys 3-2 in Primera División on April 4, 2026.
The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.