Sport Boys 2–2 Cienciano: Result & Stats

Sport Boys

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Cienciano

A. Hohberg 80' (pen)

L. Urruti 41'

C. Garces 35'

L. E. Benites Vargas 26'

4/19/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 9Estadio Miguel Grau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Sport Boys42%

×Draw26%

Cienciano32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport BoysExpected goals in this matchCienciano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.21

Sport Boys

1.42

Cienciano

1.21

Sport Boys creates 17% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 106 away

1.30

creates per match

1.21

1.22

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Sport Boys

1.30

Cienciano

1.21

allows per match

Sport Boys

1.22

Cienciano

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Boys+0.00on par

Cienciano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

Cienciano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw

68%

Sport Boys or Cienciano

74%

Draw or Cienciano

58%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+

20%

Cienciano wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals

76%

Sport Boys 2+ goals

41%

Sport Boys 3+ goals

17%

Cienciano 1+ goals

70%

Cienciano 2+ goals

34%

Cienciano 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)

57%

Cienciano (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.22 · 135 matches

Cienciano away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.30 + Cienciano defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

Cienciano attack 1.21 + Sport Boys defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sport Boys scores more

42%

level

26%

Cienciano scores more

32%

Sport Boys at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

C. Garces

Cienciano · F

8.6

Match Events

-5'

Beto Da Silva

15'

Luciano Nequecaur

26'

L. E. Benites Vargas↳ C. Garces

35'

C. Garces↳ G. Gentile

40'

Christian Neira

41'

L. Urruti↳ A. Hohberg

43'

45'

45'

45+4'

45+1'

45'

45+6'

48'

53'

Maximiliano Amondarain

56'

E. Gonzales← A. Altuna

56'

J. Rios← C. H. Da

56'

C. Lopez← J. Gonzales

68'

D. La Torre← C. Neira

79'

S. Aranda← C. Carbajal

79'

C. Torrejon← S. D. Arias Fierro

79'

S. Cavero← A. Gomez

80'

A. HohbergPenalty

83'

Oslimg Mora

88'

A. Ramua← J. Romagnoli

88'

O. Noronha← G. Gentile

90+6'

Jimmy Valoyes

90+6'

Jimmy Valoyes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportCienciano

Overview

50%Possession50%

16Total Shots20

5Corners3

20Fouls18

Shots

16Total Shots20

8On Target5

5Off Target9

3Blocked6

10Inside Box8

6Outside Box12

Passing

50%Possession50%

288Total Passes310

235Accurate Passes253

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

20Fouls18

5Yellow Cards7

1Red Cards2

1Offsides0