Cienciano 3–2 Sport Boys: Result & Stats

Cienciano

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sport Boys

2/18/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Cienciano57%

×Draw23%

Sport Boys20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CiencianoExpected goals in this matchSport Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.95

Cienciano

1.79

Sport Boys

0.95

Cienciano creates 88% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 145 away

1.81

creates per match

0.86

1.04

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Cienciano

1.81

Sport Boys

0.86

allows per match

Cienciano

1.04

Sport Boys

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cienciano+0.00on par

Sport Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Sport Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw

80%

Cienciano or Sport Boys

77%

Draw or Sport Boys

43%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+

32%

Sport Boys wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals

83%

Cienciano 2+ goals

53%

Cienciano 3+ goals

26%

Sport Boys 1+ goals

61%

Sport Boys 2+ goals

25%

Sport Boys 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)

74%

Sport Boys (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.04 · 107 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.77 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 1.81 + Sport Boys defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sport Boys attack 0.86 + Cienciano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cienciano scores more

57%

level

23%

Sport Boys scores more

20%

Cienciano at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff