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Sport Boys vs Alianza Lima — Primera División 2026

Sport Boys
Sport Boys
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
P. Guerrero 55'
J. Freytes 45+1'
Pablo Sabbag 15' (pen)
9/22/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 12Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sport Boys42%
×Draw28%
Alianza Lima31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Boys
1.31
Alianza Lima
1.08

Sport Boys creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sport Boys
1.65
Alianza Lima
1.07

allows per match

Sport Boys
1.09
Alianza Lima
0.98

finishing

Sport Boys-0.90scores less
Alianza Lima-0.13scores less

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

Alianza Lima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw
69%
Sport Boys or Alianza Lima
72%
Draw or Alianza Lima
58%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+
19%
Alianza Lima wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals
73%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
38%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
14%
Alianza Lima 1+ goals
66%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
29%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)
58%
Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.09 · 8 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.65 + Alianza Lima defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.31

Alianza Lima attack 1.07 + Sport Boys defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sport Boys scores more
42%
level
28%
Alianza Lima scores more
31%

Sport Boys at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34
P. GuerreroAlianza LimaAlianza Lima · F
7.7

Match Events

15'
Pablo SabbagPenalty
32'
G. Aguirre
45+1'
J. Freytes
46'
C. Benavente← J. Villamarín
46'
E. Chávez← R. Salazar
46'
J. D´Arrigo← C. Zambrano
55'
P. Guerrero
59'
H. Barcos← P. Guerrero
59'
J. Castillo← G. Aguirre
72'
J. Morales
75'
K. Pena
75'
M. Huamán← K. Quevedo
75'
M. Succar← Pablo Sabbag
77'
F. Roca← C. Techera
77'
J. Barco← K. Peña
78'
E. Noriega

Possession

44%Sport

Shots

7Sport

Pass accuracy

49%Sport

Statistics

SportAlianza
Overview
44%Possession56%
7Total Shots8
4Corners7
8Fouls17
Shots
7Total Shots8
2On Target5
2Off Target3
3Blocked0
1Inside Box7
6Outside Box1
Passing
44%Possession56%
267Total Passes342
194Accurate Passes261
73%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls17
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Sport Boys vs Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima beat Sport Boys 3-0 in Primera División on September 22, 2024.

Goals: Pablo Sabbag (15' pen), J. Freytes (45+1'), P. Guerrero (55').

Alianza Lima controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao in Callao.