Alianza Lima 3–1 Sport Boys: Result & Stats

Alianza Lima

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sport Boys

P. Aquino 82'

P. Cari 63'

Paolo Guerrero 29' (pen)

L. Urruti 45'

10/17/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 14Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Alianza Lima68%

×Draw20%

Sport Boys12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza LimaExpected goals in this matchSport Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.74

Alianza Lima

2.06

Sport Boys

0.74

Alianza Lima creates 178% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

2.29

creates per match

0.78

0.71

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Alianza Lima

2.29

Sport Boys

0.78

allows per match

Alianza Lima

0.71

Sport Boys

1.84

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Alianza Lima-0.16scores less

Sport Boys+0.04on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Sport Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw

88%

Alianza Lima or Sport Boys

80%

Draw or Sport Boys

32%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

43%

Sport Boys wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

87%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

61%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

34%

Sport Boys 1+ goals

52%

Sport Boys 2+ goals

17%

Sport Boys 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

85%

Sport Boys (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 15 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 2.29 + Sport Boys defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.06

Sport Boys attack 0.78 + Alianza Lima defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Alianza Lima scores more

68%

level

20%

Sport Boys scores more

12%

Alianza Lima at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

Paolo Guerrero

Alianza Lima · F

9.3

Match Events

4'

G. Gentile← K. Quevedo

26'

Paolo GuerreroPenalty confirmed

29'

Paolo GuerreroPenalty

31'

Renzo Garcés

45'

L. Urruti↳ C. Lopez

62'

P. Cari← S. Pena

62'

P. Ceppelini← F. Gaibor

63'

P. Cari↳ R. Garces

68'

F. Martinez← E. Saba

69'

L. Nequecaur← L. Urruti

74'

Eryc CastilloGoal cancelled

78'

P. Aquino←

81'

M. Succar← E. Castillo

82'

P. Aquino↳ Paolo Guerrero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaSport

Overview

64%Possession36%

28Total Shots5

2.38Expected Goals (xG)0.36

4Corners2

28Fouls5

Shots

28Total Shots5

6On Target2

14Off Target3

8Blocked0

15Inside Box2

13Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

482Total Passes271

408Accurate Passes196

85%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

28Fouls5

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1

Primera División: Alianza Lima 3–1 Sport Boys

Alianza Lima beat Sport Boys 3-1 in Primera División on October 17, 2025.

Goals: Paolo Guerrero (29' pen), L. Urruti (45'), P. Cari (63'), P. Aquino (82').

Alianza Lima controlled possession (64%) and registered 28 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva in Lima.

Alianza Lima vs Sport Boys — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Alianza Lima 3–1 Sport Boys