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Sport Boys vs ADT — Primera División 2026

Sport Boys
Sport Boys
Preview
22:30
ADT
ADT
7/25/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Miguel Grau
Big match
60%
Sport Boys
model favours
60%22%18%

69% of Sport Boys’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Sport Boys60%
×Draw22%
ADT18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Boys
1.86
ADT
0.91

Sport Boys creates 104% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sport Boys
1.90
ADT
0.87

allows per match

Sport Boys
0.94
ADT
1.82

finishing

Sport Boys-1.30scores less
ADT-0.07on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

ADT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw
82%
Sport Boys or ADT
78%
Draw or ADT
40%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+
35%
ADT wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals
84%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
55%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
28%
ADT 1+ goals
60%
ADT 2+ goals
23%
ADT 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)
77%
ADT (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

ADT away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.82 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.90 + ADT defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.86

ADT attack 0.87 + Sport Boys defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sport Boys scores more
60%
level
22%
ADT scores more
18%

Sport Boys at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 31% of Sport Boys’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Sport Boys
Balanced
ADT
Balanced
47%PossessionBiggest gap53%
76%Pass accuracy78%
12.1Shots12.9
1.30xG1.37
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sport BoysADT

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

3
Sport Boys
2
Draws
4
ADT
Avg goals: 1.9BTTS: 33%
0–11–02–20–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Boys
LWWD
ADT
LWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sport Boys vs ADT — Match Preview

Sport Boys face ADT on July 25, 2026 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sport Boys host ADT at Estadio Miguel Grau.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.