Sport Boys 1–0 ADT: Result & Stats

Sport Boys

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ADT

H. Riojas 35' (pen)

8/4/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Miguel Grau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sport Boys51%

×Draw26%

ADT23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport BoysExpected goals in this matchADT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.92

Sport Boys

1.53

ADT

0.92

Sport Boys creates 66% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

1.65

creates per match

0.74

1.09

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Sport Boys

1.65

ADT

0.74

allows per match

Sport Boys

1.09

ADT

1.42

-0.90scores less than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Sport Boys-0.90scores less

ADT+0.34scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

ADT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw

77%

Sport Boys or ADT

74%

Draw or ADT

49%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+

27%

ADT wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals

78%

Sport Boys 2+ goals

45%

Sport Boys 3+ goals

20%

ADT 1+ goals

60%

ADT 2+ goals

23%

ADT 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)

69%

ADT (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.09 · 8 matches

ADT away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.65 + ADT defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.53

ADT attack 0.74 + Sport Boys defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sport Boys scores more

51%

level

26%

ADT scores more

23%

Sport Boys at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

H. Riojas

Sport Boys · D

7.9

Match Events

10'

Cristian CarbajalPenalty confirmed

33'

Oslimg MoraPenalty confirmed

34'

Carlos Cabello

35'

H. RiojasPenalty

39'

John Narváez

46'

C. Lopez← F. Roca

46'

H. Rengifo← A. Fernandez

48'

Gu-rum Choi

61'

Hernán Rengifo

61'

N. Bazan← D. Montenegro

70'

Leonel Solís

71'

E. Gonzales← L. Urruti

71'

G. Rodriguez← F. Martinez

79'

80'

81'

81'

84'

A. Moyano← J. Narvaez

84'

J. Garcilazo← A. Perez

86'

Axel Moyano

86'

S. Aranda← O. Mora

90'

B. Villalta← A. Solis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportADT

Overview

43%Possession57%

14Total Shots12

3.16Expected Goals (xG)0.77

4Corners9

11Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots12

5On Target2

6Off Target9

3Blocked1

9Inside Box9

5Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

307Total Passes391

235Accurate Passes311

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls15

3Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Sport Boys 1 – 0 ADT

Sport Boys beat ADT 1-0 in Primera División on August 4, 2025.

Goals: H. Riojas (35' pen).

ADT controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau in Callao.

Sport Boys vs ADT — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Sport Boys 1 – 0 ADT