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ADT vs Sport Boys — Primera División 2026

ADT
ADT
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Boys
Sport Boys
H. Rengifo 72'
11/1/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 17Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

ADT59%
×Draw23%
Sport Boys18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADT
1.81
Sport Boys
0.90

ADT creates 101% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

ADT
1.79
Sport Boys
0.78

allows per match

ADT
1.02
Sport Boys
1.84

finishing

ADT-0.12scores less
Sport Boys+0.04on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADT ↓

Sport Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

ADT or draw
82%
ADT or Sport Boys
77%
Draw or Sport Boys
41%

Winning margin

ADT wins by 2+
34%
Sport Boys wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

ADT 1+ goals
84%
ADT 2+ goals
54%
ADT 3+ goals
27%
Sport Boys 1+ goals
59%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
23%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

ADT (draw refunded)
76%
Sport Boys (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADT at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.02 · 12 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADT attack 1.79 + Sport Boys defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.81

Sport Boys attack 0.78 + ADT defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

ADT scores more
59%
level
23%
Sport Boys scores more
18%

ADT at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "ADT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
A. RambalADTADT · D
8.5

Match Events

46'
H. Rengifo← A. Quiñonez
58'
C. Correa← J. Villamarín
59'
J. Ríos← C. Benavente
63'
Y. Gamero← J. Rojas
63'
J. Gonzáles← V. Cedrón
72'
H. Rengifo↳ J. Falconí
74'
J. Pósito← C. Inga
90+1'
Carlos Correa
90+2'
A. Benítes← J. López

Possession

70%ADT

Shots

17ADT

Pass accuracy

55%ADT

Statistics

ADTSport
Overview
70%Possession30%
17Total Shots5
6Corners2
4Fouls9
Shots
17Total Shots5
4On Target1
11Off Target4
2Blocked0
10Inside Box1
7Outside Box4
Passing
70%Possession30%
507Total Passes211
433Accurate Passes148
85%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
4Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Match Recap: ADT vs Sport Boys

ADT beat Sport Boys 1-0 in Primera División on November 1, 2024.

Goals: H. Rengifo (72').

ADT controlled possession (70%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma in Tarma.