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Sport Academy Kairat vs SDYuShOR 8 — 1. Division 2019

Sport Academy Kairat
Sport Academy Kairat
FT
2 – 3
SDYuShOR 8
SDYuShOR 8
I. Dadaev 54'
A. Bovkun 48'
B. Kulbekov 86'
T. Elmurzayev 66'
A. Ismailov 17'
9/19/20201. Division1. Division · Group 1 - 2UTB Talgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sport Academy Kairat46%
×Draw22%
SDYuShOR 832%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Academy Kairat
1.95
SDYuShOR 8
1.60

Sport Academy Kairat creates 22% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sport Academy Kairat
2.57
SDYuShOR 8
1.83

allows per match

Sport Academy Kairat
1.37
SDYuShOR 8
1.33

finishing

Sport Academy Kairat+0.00on par
SDYuShOR 8+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Academy Kairat ↓

SDYuShOR 8 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sport Academy Kairat or draw
68%
Sport Academy Kairat or SDYuShOR 8
78%
Draw or SDYuShOR 8
54%

Winning margin

Sport Academy Kairat wins by 2+
26%
SDYuShOR 8 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sport Academy Kairat 1+ goals
86%
Sport Academy Kairat 2+ goals
58%
Sport Academy Kairat 3+ goals
31%
SDYuShOR 8 1+ goals
80%
SDYuShOR 8 2+ goals
47%
SDYuShOR 8 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sport Academy Kairat (draw refunded)
59%
SDYuShOR 8 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Academy Kairat at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.37 · 93 matches

SDYuShOR 8 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Academy Kairat attack 2.57 + SDYuShOR 8 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.95

SDYuShOR 8 attack 1.83 + Sport Academy Kairat defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sport Academy Kairat scores more
46%
level
22%
SDYuShOR 8 scores more
32%

Sport Academy Kairat at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sport Academy Kairat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
A. Ismailov
48'
A. Bovkun
54'
I. Dadaev
66'
T. Elmurzayev
86'
B. Kulbekov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Academy Kairat vs SDYuShOR 8

SDYuShOR 8 beat Sport Academy Kairat 3-2 in 1. Division on September 19, 2020.

Goals: A. Ismailov (17'), A. Bovkun (48'), I. Dadaev (54'), T. Elmurzayev (66'), B. Kulbekov (86').

The match was played at UTB Talgar in Talgar.