SDYuShOR 8 2–4 Sport Academy Kairat: Result & Stats

SDYuShOR 8

FT

2 – 4

Sport Academy Kairat

A. Ismailov 32'

E. Nabiev 30'

U. Khaitmuratov 90+5'

R. Emirov 36'

I. Dadaev 16'

V. Shvyrev 14' (pen)

10/16/2020

1. Division · Group 1 - 9Sportkompleks BÏIK pole 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

SDYuShOR 840%

×Draw21%

Sport Academy Kairat39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SDYuShOR 8Expected goals in this matchSport Academy Kairat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.96

SDYuShOR 8

1.97

Sport Academy Kairat

1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 90 away

2.33

creates per match

1.92

2.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

SDYuShOR 8

2.33

Sport Academy Kairat

1.92

allows per match

SDYuShOR 8

2.00

Sport Academy Kairat

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SDYuShOR 8+0.00on par

Sport Academy Kairat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SDYuShOR 8 ↓

Sport Academy Kairat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

SDYuShOR 8 or draw

61%

SDYuShOR 8 or Sport Academy Kairat

79%

Draw or Sport Academy Kairat

60%

Winning margin

SDYuShOR 8 wins by 2+

21%

Sport Academy Kairat wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

SDYuShOR 8 1+ goals

86%

SDYuShOR 8 2+ goals

58%

SDYuShOR 8 3+ goals

31%

Sport Academy Kairat 1+ goals

86%

Sport Academy Kairat 2+ goals

58%

Sport Academy Kairat 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

SDYuShOR 8 (draw refunded)

50%

Sport Academy Kairat (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SDYuShOR 8 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Sport Academy Kairat away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.60 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SDYuShOR 8 attack 2.33 + Sport Academy Kairat defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.97

Sport Academy Kairat attack 1.92 + SDYuShOR 8 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SDYuShOR 8 scores more

40%

level

21%

Sport Academy Kairat scores more

39%

SDYuShOR 8 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SDYuShOR 8 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

V. ShvyrevPenalty

16'

I. Dadaev

30'

E. Nabiev

32'

A. Ismailov

36'

R. Emirov

55'

B. Kulbekov

90+5'

U. Khaitmuratov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff