Sport Academy Kairat 3–1 Kyzyl-Zhar II

Sport Academy Kairat

FT

3 – 1

Kyzyl-Zhar II

7/12/2021

1. Division · Round 12Stadïon Akademïï T.S.Segïzbaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sport Academy Kairat78%

×Draw13%

Kyzyl-Zhar II9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport Academy KairatExpected goals in this matchKyzyl-Zhar II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.15

1.05

Sport Academy Kairat

3.15

Kyzyl-Zhar II

1.05

Sport Academy Kairat creates 200% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 11 away

2.57

creates per match

0.73

1.37

allows per match

3.73

creates per match

Sport Academy Kairat

2.57

Kyzyl-Zhar II

0.73

allows per match

Sport Academy Kairat

1.37

Kyzyl-Zhar II

3.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Academy Kairat+0.00on par

Kyzyl-Zhar II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Academy Kairat ↓

Kyzyl-Zhar II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Sport Academy Kairat or draw

91%

Sport Academy Kairat or Kyzyl-Zhar II

87%

Draw or Kyzyl-Zhar II

22%

Winning margin

Sport Academy Kairat wins by 2+

59%

Kyzyl-Zhar II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sport Academy Kairat 1+ goals

96%

Sport Academy Kairat 2+ goals

81%

Sport Academy Kairat 3+ goals

59%

Kyzyl-Zhar II 1+ goals

65%

Kyzyl-Zhar II 2+ goals

28%

Kyzyl-Zhar II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sport Academy Kairat (draw refunded)

89%

Kyzyl-Zhar II (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Academy Kairat at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.37 · 93 matches

Kyzyl-Zhar II away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Academy Kairat attack 2.57 + Kyzyl-Zhar II defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 3.15

Kyzyl-Zhar II attack 0.73 + Sport Academy Kairat defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Sport Academy Kairat scores more

78%

level

13%

Kyzyl-Zhar II scores more

9%

Sport Academy Kairat at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Sport Academy Kairat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff