Kyzyl-Zhar II 1–1 Sport Academy Kairat

Kyzyl-Zhar II

FT

1 – 1

Sport Academy Kairat

4/17/2021

1. Division · Round 2Stadion Karasay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kyzyl-Zhar II21%

×Draw20%

Sport Academy Kairat59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kyzyl-Zhar IIExpected goals in this matchSport Academy Kairat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

2.33

Kyzyl-Zhar II

1.35

Sport Academy Kairat

2.33

Sport Academy Kairat creates 73% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 90 away

1.09

creates per match

1.92

2.73

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Kyzyl-Zhar II

1.09

Sport Academy Kairat

1.92

allows per match

Kyzyl-Zhar II

2.73

Sport Academy Kairat

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyzyl-Zhar II+0.00on par

Sport Academy Kairat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyzyl-Zhar II ↓

Sport Academy Kairat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Kyzyl-Zhar II or draw

41%

Kyzyl-Zhar II or Sport Academy Kairat

80%

Draw or Sport Academy Kairat

79%

Winning margin

Kyzyl-Zhar II wins by 2+

9%

Sport Academy Kairat wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Kyzyl-Zhar II 1+ goals

74%

Kyzyl-Zhar II 2+ goals

39%

Kyzyl-Zhar II 3+ goals

15%

Sport Academy Kairat 1+ goals

90%

Sport Academy Kairat 2+ goals

67%

Sport Academy Kairat 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Kyzyl-Zhar II (draw refunded)

27%

Sport Academy Kairat (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyzyl-Zhar II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.73 · 11 matches

Sport Academy Kairat away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.60 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyzyl-Zhar II attack 1.09 + Sport Academy Kairat defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sport Academy Kairat attack 1.92 + Kyzyl-Zhar II defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kyzyl-Zhar II scores more

21%

level

20%

Sport Academy Kairat scores more

59%

Sport Academy Kairat at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sport Academy Kairat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff