Sport Academy Kairat 0–1 FK Aksu: Result & Stats

Sport Academy Kairat

FT

0 – 1

FK Aksu

9/21/2021

1. Division · Round 17Stadïon Akademïï T.S.Segïzbaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sport Academy Kairat39%

×Draw22%

FK Aksu39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport Academy KairatExpected goals in this matchFK Aksu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

Sport Academy Kairat

1.78

FK Aksu

1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 11 away

2.57

creates per match

2.18

1.37

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Sport Academy Kairat

2.57

FK Aksu

2.18

allows per match

Sport Academy Kairat

1.37

FK Aksu

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Academy Kairat+0.00on par

FK Aksu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Academy Kairat ↓

FK Aksu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Sport Academy Kairat or draw

61%

Sport Academy Kairat or FK Aksu

78%

Draw or FK Aksu

61%

Winning margin

Sport Academy Kairat wins by 2+

20%

FK Aksu wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sport Academy Kairat 1+ goals

83%

Sport Academy Kairat 2+ goals

53%

Sport Academy Kairat 3+ goals

26%

FK Aksu 1+ goals

83%

FK Aksu 2+ goals

53%

FK Aksu 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Sport Academy Kairat (draw refunded)

50%

FK Aksu (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Academy Kairat at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.37 · 93 matches

FK Aksu away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Academy Kairat attack 2.57 + FK Aksu defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

FK Aksu attack 2.18 + Sport Academy Kairat defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sport Academy Kairat scores more

39%

level

22%

FK Aksu scores more

39%

Sport Academy Kairat at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sport Academy Kairat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff