Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FK Aksu vs Sport Academy Kairat — 1. Division 2019

FK Aksu
FK Aksu
FT
2 – 1
Sport Academy Kairat
Sport Academy Kairat
5/27/20211. Division1. Division · Round 7Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FK Aksu56%
×Draw21%
Sport Academy Kairat24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Aksu
2.12
Sport Academy Kairat
1.32

FK Aksu creates 61% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 90 away

creates per match

FK Aksu
2.64
Sport Academy Kairat
1.92

allows per match

FK Aksu
0.73
Sport Academy Kairat
1.60

finishing

FK Aksu+0.00on par
Sport Academy Kairat+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Aksu ↓

Sport Academy Kairat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

FK Aksu or draw
76%
FK Aksu or Sport Academy Kairat
79%
Draw or Sport Academy Kairat
44%

Winning margin

FK Aksu wins by 2+
33%
Sport Academy Kairat wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FK Aksu 1+ goals
88%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
62%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
35%
Sport Academy Kairat 1+ goals
73%
Sport Academy Kairat 2+ goals
38%
Sport Academy Kairat 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FK Aksu (draw refunded)
70%
Sport Academy Kairat (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Aksu at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Sport Academy Kairat away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.60 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Aksu attack 2.64 + Sport Academy Kairat defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.12

Sport Academy Kairat attack 1.92 + FK Aksu defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FK Aksu scores more
56%
level
21%
Sport Academy Kairat scores more
24%

FK Aksu at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FK Aksu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: FK Aksu 2–1 Sport Academy Kairat

FK Aksu beat Sport Academy Kairat 2-1 in 1. Division on May 27, 2021.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Pavlodar.