Spoje Praha 1–3 Slavia Hradec Králové

Spoje Praha

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Slavia Hradec Králové

3/17/2024

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 18Nehvizdy UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Spoje Praha49%

×Draw23%

Slavia Hradec Králové28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spoje PrahaExpected goals in this matchSlavia Hradec Králové

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.36

Spoje Praha

1.86

Slavia Hradec Králové

1.36

Spoje Praha creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

1.33

1.40

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Spoje Praha

1.40

Slavia Hradec Králové

1.33

allows per match

Spoje Praha

1.40

Slavia Hradec Králové

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spoje Praha+0.00on par

Slavia Hradec Králové+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spoje Praha ↓

Slavia Hradec Králové →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Spoje Praha or draw

72%

Spoje Praha or Slavia Hradec Králové

77%

Draw or Slavia Hradec Králové

51%

Winning margin

Spoje Praha wins by 2+

27%

Slavia Hradec Králové wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Spoje Praha 1+ goals

84%

Spoje Praha 2+ goals

55%

Spoje Praha 3+ goals

28%

Slavia Hradec Králové 1+ goals

74%

Slavia Hradec Králové 2+ goals

39%

Slavia Hradec Králové 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Spoje Praha (draw refunded)

64%

Slavia Hradec Králové (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spoje Praha at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Slavia Hradec Králové away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spoje Praha attack 1.40 + Slavia Hradec Králové defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Slavia Hradec Králové attack 1.33 + Spoje Praha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Spoje Praha scores more

49%

level

23%

Slavia Hradec Králové scores more

28%

Spoje Praha at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Spoje Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff