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Slavia Hradec Králové vs Spoje Praha — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Slavia Hradec Králové
Slavia Hradec Králové
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spoje Praha
Spoje Praha
8/18/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 3Stadion TJ Slavia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slavia Hradec Králové52%
×Draw24%
Spoje Praha24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Hradec Králové
1.67
Spoje Praha
1.06

Slavia Hradec Králové creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Slavia Hradec Králové
1.53
Spoje Praha
0.80

allows per match

Slavia Hradec Králové
1.33
Spoje Praha
1.80

finishing

Slavia Hradec Králové+0.00on par
Spoje Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Hradec Králové ↓

Spoje Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slavia Hradec Králové or draw
76%
Slavia Hradec Králové or Spoje Praha
76%
Draw or Spoje Praha
48%

Winning margin

Slavia Hradec Králové wins by 2+
28%
Spoje Praha wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slavia Hradec Králové 1+ goals
81%
Slavia Hradec Králové 2+ goals
50%
Slavia Hradec Králové 3+ goals
23%
Spoje Praha 1+ goals
65%
Spoje Praha 2+ goals
29%
Spoje Praha 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Slavia Hradec Králové (draw refunded)
68%
Spoje Praha (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Hradec Králové at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Spoje Praha away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Hradec Králové attack 1.53 + Spoje Praha defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.67

Spoje Praha attack 0.80 + Slavia Hradec Králové defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Slavia Hradec Králové scores more
52%
level
24%
Spoje Praha scores more
24%

Slavia Hradec Králové at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Slavia Hradec Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Slavia Hradec Králové 1–0 Spoje Praha

Slavia Hradec Králové beat Spoje Praha 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Slavia in Hradec Králové.