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Spoje Praha vs Chrudim II — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Spoje Praha
Spoje Praha
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Chrudim II
Chrudim II
8/26/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 4Na Balkáně

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Spoje Praha45%
×Draw24%
Chrudim II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spoje Praha
1.65
Chrudim II
1.35

Spoje Praha creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Spoje Praha
1.40
Chrudim II
1.31

allows per match

Spoje Praha
1.40
Chrudim II
1.89

finishing

Spoje Praha+0.00on par
Chrudim II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spoje Praha ↓

Chrudim II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Spoje Praha or draw
69%
Spoje Praha or Chrudim II
76%
Draw or Chrudim II
55%

Winning margin

Spoje Praha wins by 2+
23%
Chrudim II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Spoje Praha 1+ goals
81%
Spoje Praha 2+ goals
49%
Spoje Praha 3+ goals
23%
Chrudim II 1+ goals
74%
Chrudim II 2+ goals
39%
Chrudim II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Spoje Praha (draw refunded)
59%
Chrudim II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spoje Praha at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Chrudim II away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spoje Praha attack 1.40 + Chrudim II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.65

Chrudim II attack 1.31 + Spoje Praha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spoje Praha scores more
45%
level
24%
Chrudim II scores more
31%

Spoje Praha at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Spoje Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spoje Praha vs Chrudim II

Chrudim II beat Spoje Praha 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Na Balkáně in Praha.