Chrudim II 0–0 Spoje Praha: Result & Stats

Chrudim II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Spoje Praha

3/23/2024

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 19Stadion UMT MFK Chrudim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chrudim II54%

×Draw22%

Spoje Praha24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrudim IIExpected goals in this matchSpoje Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.20

Chrudim II

1.92

Spoje Praha

1.20

Chrudim II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

2.04

creates per match

0.80

1.60

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Chrudim II

2.04

Spoje Praha

0.80

allows per match

Chrudim II

1.60

Spoje Praha

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrudim II+0.00on par

Spoje Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrudim II ↓

Spoje Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Chrudim II or draw

76%

Chrudim II or Spoje Praha

78%

Draw or Spoje Praha

46%

Winning margin

Chrudim II wins by 2+

31%

Spoje Praha wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chrudim II 1+ goals

85%

Chrudim II 2+ goals

57%

Chrudim II 3+ goals

30%

Spoje Praha 1+ goals

70%

Spoje Praha 2+ goals

34%

Spoje Praha 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chrudim II (draw refunded)

69%

Spoje Praha (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrudim II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Spoje Praha away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrudim II attack 2.04 + Spoje Praha defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.92

Spoje Praha attack 0.80 + Chrudim II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chrudim II scores more

54%

level

22%

Spoje Praha scores more

24%

Chrudim II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chrudim II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff