Spjelkavik 2–0 Raufoss II: Result & Stats

Spjelkavik

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Raufoss II

10/8/2022

3. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 24Spjelkavik stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Spjelkavik72%

×Draw16%

Raufoss II12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpjelkavikExpected goals in this matchRaufoss II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.02

Spjelkavik

2.67

Raufoss II

1.02

Spjelkavik creates 162% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 26 away

2.18

creates per match

0.88

1.16

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Spjelkavik

2.18

Raufoss II

0.88

allows per match

Spjelkavik

1.16

Raufoss II

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spjelkavik+0.00on par

Raufoss II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spjelkavik ↓

Raufoss II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Spjelkavik or draw

88%

Spjelkavik or Raufoss II

84%

Draw or Raufoss II

28%

Winning margin

Spjelkavik wins by 2+

50%

Raufoss II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Spjelkavik 1+ goals

93%

Spjelkavik 2+ goals

74%

Spjelkavik 3+ goals

49%

Raufoss II 1+ goals

64%

Raufoss II 2+ goals

27%

Raufoss II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Spjelkavik (draw refunded)

85%

Raufoss II (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spjelkavik at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Raufoss II away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spjelkavik attack 2.18 + Raufoss II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.67

Raufoss II attack 0.88 + Spjelkavik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Spjelkavik scores more

72%

level

16%

Raufoss II scores more

12%

Spjelkavik at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Spjelkavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff