Raufoss II 2–1 Spjelkavik: Result & Stats

Raufoss II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Spjelkavik

10/8/2023

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 23NAMMO stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Raufoss II30%

×Draw20%

Spjelkavik50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raufoss IIExpected goals in this matchSpjelkavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

2.43

Raufoss II

1.86

Spjelkavik

2.43

Spjelkavik creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 45 away

1.50

creates per match

1.78

3.08

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Raufoss II

1.50

Spjelkavik

1.78

allows per match

Raufoss II

3.08

Spjelkavik

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raufoss II+0.00on par

Spjelkavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raufoss II ↓

Spjelkavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–14%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Raufoss II or draw

50%

Raufoss II or Spjelkavik

80%

Draw or Spjelkavik

70%

Winning margin

Raufoss II wins by 2+

15%

Spjelkavik wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Raufoss II 1+ goals

84%

Raufoss II 2+ goals

55%

Raufoss II 3+ goals

28%

Spjelkavik 1+ goals

91%

Spjelkavik 2+ goals

69%

Spjelkavik 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Raufoss II (draw refunded)

37%

Spjelkavik (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raufoss II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.08 · 26 matches

Spjelkavik away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.22 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raufoss II attack 1.50 + Spjelkavik defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.86

Spjelkavik attack 1.78 + Raufoss II defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Raufoss II scores more

30%

level

20%

Spjelkavik scores more

50%

Spjelkavik at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Spjelkavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff