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Spittal vs Austria Klagenfurt II — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Spittal
Spittal
FT
2 – 1
Austria Klagenfurt II
Austria Klagenfurt II
8/2/2024Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 1Goldeckstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Spittal48%
×Draw22%
Austria Klagenfurt II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spittal
1.88
Austria Klagenfurt II
1.44

Spittal creates 31% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 60 away

creates per match

Spittal
2.25
Austria Klagenfurt II
1.38

allows per match

Spittal
1.50
Austria Klagenfurt II
1.50

finishing

Spittal+0.00on par
Austria Klagenfurt II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spittal ↓

Austria Klagenfurt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Spittal or draw
70%
Spittal or Austria Klagenfurt II
78%
Draw or Austria Klagenfurt II
52%

Winning margin

Spittal wins by 2+
27%
Austria Klagenfurt II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Spittal 1+ goals
85%
Spittal 2+ goals
56%
Spittal 3+ goals
29%
Austria Klagenfurt II 1+ goals
76%
Austria Klagenfurt II 2+ goals
42%
Austria Klagenfurt II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Spittal (draw refunded)
62%
Austria Klagenfurt II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spittal at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

Austria Klagenfurt II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spittal attack 2.25 + Austria Klagenfurt II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Austria Klagenfurt II attack 1.38 + Spittal defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Spittal scores more
48%
level
22%
Austria Klagenfurt II scores more
30%

Spittal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Spittal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spittal vs Austria Klagenfurt II

Spittal beat Austria Klagenfurt II 2-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on August 2, 2024.

The match was played at Goldeckstadion in Spittal an der Drau.