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Austria Klagenfurt II vs Spittal — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Austria Klagenfurt II
Austria Klagenfurt II
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Spittal
Spittal
11/8/2024Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 16Sportpark Klagenfurt Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt II49%
×Draw22%
Spittal29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Klagenfurt II
1.94
Spittal
1.43

Austria Klagenfurt II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 68 away

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt II
1.95
Spittal
1.59

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt II
1.27
Spittal
1.94

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt II+0.00on par
Spittal+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt II ↓

Spittal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt II or draw
71%
Austria Klagenfurt II or Spittal
78%
Draw or Spittal
51%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt II wins by 2+
28%
Spittal wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt II 1+ goals
86%
Austria Klagenfurt II 2+ goals
58%
Austria Klagenfurt II 3+ goals
30%
Spittal 1+ goals
76%
Spittal 2+ goals
42%
Spittal 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt II (draw refunded)
63%
Spittal (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt II at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

Spittal away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.94 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt II attack 1.95 + Spittal defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.94

Spittal attack 1.59 + Austria Klagenfurt II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Austria Klagenfurt II scores more
49%
level
22%
Spittal scores more
29%

Austria Klagenfurt II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Austria Klagenfurt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austria Klagenfurt II vs Spittal

Austria Klagenfurt II beat Spittal 6-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on November 8, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Klagenfurt Kunstrasen in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.