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Spišské Podhradie vs Pokrok Krompachy — 3. liga - East 2020

Spišské Podhradie
Spišské Podhradie
FT
2 – 2
Pokrok Krompachy
Pokrok Krompachy
10/11/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 12Štadión MŠK Spišské Podhradie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Spišské Podhradie65%
×Draw18%
Pokrok Krompachy17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spišské Podhradie
2.56
Pokrok Krompachy
1.26

Spišské Podhradie creates 103% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 23 away

creates per match

Spišské Podhradie
1.47
Pokrok Krompachy
0.61

allows per match

Spišské Podhradie
1.92
Pokrok Krompachy
3.65

finishing

Spišské Podhradie+0.00on par
Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spišské Podhradie ↓

Pokrok Krompachy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Spišské Podhradie or draw
83%
Spišské Podhradie or Pokrok Krompachy
82%
Draw or Pokrok Krompachy
35%

Winning margin

Spišské Podhradie wins by 2+
44%
Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Spišské Podhradie 1+ goals
92%
Spišské Podhradie 2+ goals
72%
Spišské Podhradie 3+ goals
46%
Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals
72%
Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals
36%
Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Spišské Podhradie (draw refunded)
79%
Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spišské Podhradie at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.92 · 64 matches

Pokrok Krompachy away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spišské Podhradie attack 1.47 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.56

Pokrok Krompachy attack 0.61 + Spišské Podhradie defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Spišské Podhradie scores more
65%
level
18%
Pokrok Krompachy scores more
17%

Spišské Podhradie at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Spišské Podhradie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spišské Podhradie vs Pokrok Krompachy

Spišské Podhradie and Pokrok Krompachy drew 2-2 in 3. liga - East on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Štadión MŠK Spišské Podhradie in Spišské Podhradie.