Pokrok Krompachy 2–3 Spišské Podhradie

Pokrok Krompachy

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Spišské Podhradie

5/7/2022

3. liga - East · East - 24Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Pokrok Krompachy50%

×Draw22%

Spišské Podhradie29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pokrok KrompachyExpected goals in this matchSpišské Podhradie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.52

Pokrok Krompachy

2.04

Spišské Podhradie

1.52

Pokrok Krompachy creates 34% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 65 away

1.23

creates per match

0.80

2.23

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Pokrok Krompachy

1.23

Spišské Podhradie

0.80

allows per match

Pokrok Krompachy

2.23

Spišské Podhradie

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par

Spišské Podhradie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pokrok Krompachy ↓

Spišské Podhradie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Pokrok Krompachy or draw

71%

Pokrok Krompachy or Spišské Podhradie

78%

Draw or Spišské Podhradie

50%

Winning margin

Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+

29%

Spišské Podhradie wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals

87%

Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals

60%

Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals

33%

Spišské Podhradie 1+ goals

78%

Spišské Podhradie 2+ goals

45%

Spišské Podhradie 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)

63%

Spišské Podhradie (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pokrok Krompachy at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

Spišské Podhradie away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.86 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pokrok Krompachy attack 1.23 + Spišské Podhradie defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.04

Spišské Podhradie attack 0.80 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pokrok Krompachy scores more

50%

level

22%

Spišské Podhradie scores more

29%

Pokrok Krompachy at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pokrok Krompachy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff