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Spišské Podhradie vs Partizán Bardejov — 3. liga - East 2020

Spišské Podhradie
Spišské Podhradie
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Partizán Bardejov
Partizán Bardejov
3/26/20253. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 18Štadión MŠK Spišské Podhradie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Spišské Podhradie50%
×Draw22%
Partizán Bardejov28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spišské Podhradie
2.02
Partizán Bardejov
1.46

Spišské Podhradie creates 38% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 44 away

creates per match

Spišské Podhradie
1.47
Partizán Bardejov
1.00

allows per match

Spišské Podhradie
1.92
Partizán Bardejov
2.57

finishing

Spišské Podhradie+0.00on par
Partizán Bardejov+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spišské Podhradie ↓

Partizán Bardejov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Spišské Podhradie or draw
72%
Spišské Podhradie or Partizán Bardejov
78%
Draw or Partizán Bardejov
50%

Winning margin

Spišské Podhradie wins by 2+
29%
Partizán Bardejov wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Spišské Podhradie 1+ goals
87%
Spišské Podhradie 2+ goals
60%
Spišské Podhradie 3+ goals
33%
Partizán Bardejov 1+ goals
77%
Partizán Bardejov 2+ goals
43%
Partizán Bardejov 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Spišské Podhradie (draw refunded)
64%
Partizán Bardejov (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spišské Podhradie at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.92 · 64 matches

Partizán Bardejov away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spišské Podhradie attack 1.47 + Partizán Bardejov defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.02

Partizán Bardejov attack 1.00 + Spišské Podhradie defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Spišské Podhradie scores more
50%
level
22%
Partizán Bardejov scores more
28%

Spišské Podhradie at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Spišské Podhradie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spišské Podhradie vs Partizán Bardejov

Partizán Bardejov beat Spišské Podhradie 2-1 in 3. liga - East on March 26, 2025.

The match was played at Štadión MŠK Spišské Podhradie in Spišské Podhradie.