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Partizán Bardejov vs Spišské Podhradie — 3. liga - East 2020

Partizán Bardejov
Partizán Bardejov
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Spišské Podhradie
Spišské Podhradie
8/17/20243. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 3Mestský štadión Partizán Bardejov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Partizán Bardejov61%
×Draw20%
Spišské Podhradie19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizán Bardejov
2.23
Spišské Podhradie
1.16

Partizán Bardejov creates 92% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 65 away

creates per match

Partizán Bardejov
1.61
Spišské Podhradie
0.80

allows per match

Partizán Bardejov
1.52
Spišské Podhradie
2.86

finishing

Partizán Bardejov+0.00on par
Spišské Podhradie+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizán Bardejov ↓

Spišské Podhradie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Partizán Bardejov or draw
81%
Partizán Bardejov or Spišské Podhradie
80%
Draw or Spišské Podhradie
39%

Winning margin

Partizán Bardejov wins by 2+
39%
Spišské Podhradie wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Partizán Bardejov 1+ goals
89%
Partizán Bardejov 2+ goals
65%
Partizán Bardejov 3+ goals
38%
Spišské Podhradie 1+ goals
69%
Spišské Podhradie 2+ goals
32%
Spišské Podhradie 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Partizán Bardejov (draw refunded)
76%
Spišské Podhradie (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizán Bardejov at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

Spišské Podhradie away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.86 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizán Bardejov attack 1.61 + Spišské Podhradie defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.23

Spišské Podhradie attack 0.80 + Partizán Bardejov defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Partizán Bardejov scores more
61%
level
20%
Spišské Podhradie scores more
19%

Partizán Bardejov at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Partizán Bardejov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Partizán Bardejov vs Spišské Podhradie

Partizán Bardejov beat Spišské Podhradie 3-1 in 3. liga - East on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Mestský štadión Partizán Bardejov in Bardejov.