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Spišské Podhradie vs Oravské Veselé — 3. liga - East 2020

Spišské Podhradie
Spišské Podhradie
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Oravské Veselé
Oravské Veselé
3/3/20243. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 16Štadión MŠK Spišské Podhradie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Spišské Podhradie46%
×Draw23%
Oravské Veselé31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spišské Podhradie
1.79
Oravské Veselé
1.44

Spišské Podhradie creates 24% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 29 away

creates per match

Spišské Podhradie
1.47
Oravské Veselé
0.97

allows per match

Spišské Podhradie
1.92
Oravské Veselé
2.10

finishing

Spišské Podhradie+0.00on par
Oravské Veselé+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spišské Podhradie ↓

Oravské Veselé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Spišské Podhradie or draw
69%
Spišské Podhradie or Oravské Veselé
77%
Draw or Oravské Veselé
54%

Winning margin

Spišské Podhradie wins by 2+
25%
Oravské Veselé wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Spišské Podhradie 1+ goals
83%
Spišské Podhradie 2+ goals
53%
Spišské Podhradie 3+ goals
26%
Oravské Veselé 1+ goals
76%
Oravské Veselé 2+ goals
42%
Oravské Veselé 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Spišské Podhradie (draw refunded)
60%
Oravské Veselé (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spišské Podhradie at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.92 · 64 matches

Oravské Veselé away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spišské Podhradie attack 1.47 + Oravské Veselé defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.79

Oravské Veselé attack 0.97 + Spišské Podhradie defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Spišské Podhradie scores more
46%
level
23%
Oravské Veselé scores more
31%

Spišské Podhradie at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spišské Podhradie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Spišské Podhradie 3–2 Oravské Veselé

Spišské Podhradie beat Oravské Veselé 3-2 in 3. liga - East on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión MŠK Spišské Podhradie in Spišské Podhradie.