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Oravské Veselé vs Spišské Podhradie — 3. liga - East 2020

Oravské Veselé
Oravské Veselé
FT
1 – 1
Spišské Podhradie
Spišské Podhradie
8/29/20233. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 1Futbalový štadión TJ Tatran Oravské Veselé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Oravské Veselé71%
×Draw17%
Spišské Podhradie12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oravské Veselé
2.43
Spišské Podhradie
0.89

Oravské Veselé creates 173% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 65 away

creates per match

Oravské Veselé
2.00
Spišské Podhradie
0.80

allows per match

Oravské Veselé
0.97
Spišské Podhradie
2.86

finishing

Oravské Veselé+0.00on par
Spišské Podhradie+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oravské Veselé ↓

Spišské Podhradie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Oravské Veselé or draw
88%
Oravské Veselé or Spišské Podhradie
83%
Draw or Spišské Podhradie
29%

Winning margin

Oravské Veselé wins by 2+
48%
Spišské Podhradie wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Oravské Veselé 1+ goals
91%
Oravské Veselé 2+ goals
69%
Oravské Veselé 3+ goals
43%
Spišské Podhradie 1+ goals
59%
Spišské Podhradie 2+ goals
22%
Spišské Podhradie 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Oravské Veselé (draw refunded)
86%
Spišské Podhradie (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oravské Veselé at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

Spišské Podhradie away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.86 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oravské Veselé attack 2.00 + Spišské Podhradie defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.43

Spišské Podhradie attack 0.80 + Oravské Veselé defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Oravské Veselé scores more
71%
level
17%
Spišské Podhradie scores more
12%

Oravské Veselé at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Oravské Veselé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Oravské Veselé 1–1 Spišské Podhradie

Oravské Veselé and Spišské Podhradie drew 1-1 in 3. liga - East on August 29, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión TJ Tatran Oravské Veselé in Oravské Veselé.