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Spišská Nová Ves vs Sobrance — 3. liga - East 2020

Spišská Nová Ves
Spišská Nová Ves
FT
3 – 0
Sobrance
Sobrance
8/22/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 5Štadión Nová Ves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Spišská Nová Ves75%
×Draw16%
Sobrance10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spišská Nová Ves
2.54
Sobrance
0.80

Spišská Nová Ves creates 217% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 15 away

creates per match

Spišská Nová Ves
2.56
Sobrance
0.73

allows per match

Spišská Nová Ves
0.88
Sobrance
2.53

finishing

Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par
Sobrance+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spišská Nová Ves ↓

Sobrance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Spišská Nová Ves or draw
90%
Spišská Nová Ves or Sobrance
84%
Draw or Sobrance
25%

Winning margin

Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+
53%
Sobrance wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals
92%
Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals
72%
Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals
46%
Sobrance 1+ goals
55%
Sobrance 2+ goals
19%
Sobrance 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)
88%
Sobrance (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spišská Nová Ves at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.88 · 66 matches

Sobrance away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spišská Nová Ves attack 2.56 + Sobrance defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.54

Sobrance attack 0.73 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Spišská Nová Ves scores more
75%
level
16%
Sobrance scores more
10%

Spišská Nová Ves at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Spišská Nová Ves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Spišská Nová Ves 3–0 Sobrance

Spišská Nová Ves beat Sobrance 3-0 in 3. liga - East on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión Nová Ves in Spišská Nová Ves.