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Sobrance vs Spišská Nová Ves — 3. liga - East 2020

Sobrance
Sobrance
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spišská Nová Ves
Spišská Nová Ves
4/10/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 20Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sobrance29%
×Draw24%
Spišská Nová Ves47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sobrance
1.32
Spišská Nová Ves
1.73

Spišská Nová Ves creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 64 away

creates per match

Sobrance
1.73
Spišská Nová Ves
1.73

allows per match

Sobrance
1.73
Spišská Nová Ves
0.91

finishing

Sobrance+0.00on par
Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sobrance ↓

Spišská Nová Ves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sobrance or draw
53%
Sobrance or Spišská Nová Ves
76%
Draw or Spišská Nová Ves
71%

Winning margin

Sobrance wins by 2+
13%
Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Sobrance 1+ goals
73%
Sobrance 2+ goals
38%
Sobrance 3+ goals
15%
Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals
82%
Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals
52%
Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Sobrance (draw refunded)
38%
Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sobrance at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Spišská Nová Ves away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sobrance attack 1.73 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.32

Spišská Nová Ves attack 1.73 + Sobrance defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sobrance scores more
29%
level
24%
Spišská Nová Ves scores more
47%

Spišská Nová Ves at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spišská Nová Ves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sobrance vs Spišská Nová Ves

Sobrance and Spišská Nová Ves drew 0-0 in 3. liga - East on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance in Sobrance.