Spišská Nová Ves 0–2 Slovan Bratislava II

Spišská Nová Ves

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Slovan Bratislava II

8/26/2023

2. liga · Round 5Štadión Nová Ves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Spišská Nová Ves47%

×Draw26%

Slovan Bratislava II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spišská Nová VesExpected goals in this matchSlovan Bratislava II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.08

Spišská Nová Ves

1.51

Slovan Bratislava II

1.08

Spišská Nová Ves creates 40% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 95 away

0.94

creates per match

1.03

1.13

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Spišská Nová Ves

0.94

Slovan Bratislava II

1.03

allows per match

Spišská Nová Ves

1.13

Slovan Bratislava II

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Slovan Bratislava II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spišská Nová Ves ↓

Slovan Bratislava II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Spišská Nová Ves or draw

73%

Spišská Nová Ves or Slovan Bratislava II

74%

Draw or Slovan Bratislava II

53%

Winning margin

Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+

24%

Slovan Bratislava II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals

78%

Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals

44%

Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals

19%

Slovan Bratislava II 1+ goals

66%

Slovan Bratislava II 2+ goals

29%

Slovan Bratislava II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)

63%

Slovan Bratislava II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spišská Nová Ves at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Slovan Bratislava II away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.08 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spišská Nová Ves attack 0.94 + Slovan Bratislava II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.51

Slovan Bratislava II attack 1.03 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Spišská Nová Ves scores more

47%

level

26%

Slovan Bratislava II scores more

27%

Spišská Nová Ves at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spišská Nová Ves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff