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Slovan Bratislava II vs Spišská Nová Ves — 2. liga 2019

Slovan Bratislava II
Slovan Bratislava II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Spišská Nová Ves
Spišská Nová Ves
3/15/20242. liga2. liga · Round 20Štadión Pasienky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Slovan Bratislava II59%
×Draw21%
Spišská Nová Ves20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Bratislava II
2.01
Spišská Nová Ves
1.08

Slovan Bratislava II creates 86% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 16 away

creates per match

Slovan Bratislava II
1.58
Spišská Nová Ves
0.56

allows per match

Slovan Bratislava II
1.60
Spišská Nová Ves
2.44

finishing

Slovan Bratislava II+0.00on par
Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Bratislava II ↓

Spišská Nová Ves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Slovan Bratislava II or draw
80%
Slovan Bratislava II or Spišská Nová Ves
79%
Draw or Spišská Nová Ves
41%

Winning margin

Slovan Bratislava II wins by 2+
35%
Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Slovan Bratislava II 1+ goals
87%
Slovan Bratislava II 2+ goals
59%
Slovan Bratislava II 3+ goals
32%
Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals
66%
Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals
29%
Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Slovan Bratislava II (draw refunded)
75%
Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Bratislava II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.60 · 97 matches

Spišská Nová Ves away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Bratislava II attack 1.58 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.01

Spišská Nová Ves attack 0.56 + Slovan Bratislava II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Slovan Bratislava II scores more
59%
level
21%
Spišská Nová Ves scores more
20%

Slovan Bratislava II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Bratislava II vs Spišská Nová Ves

Slovan Bratislava II beat Spišská Nová Ves 3-0 in 2. liga on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión Pasienky in Bratislava.